孟姗姗等:Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation
被阅读 927 次
2016-03-15
Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation
作者:Meng, SS (Meng, Shanshan)[ 1 ] ; Xie, XH (Xie, Xianhong)[ 1 ] ; Yu, X (Yu, Xiao)[ 1 ]
WATER
卷: 8  期: 1
文献号: 19
DOI: 10.3390/w8010019
出版年: JAN 2016
 
摘要
Watershed characteristics such as patterns of land use and land cover (LULC), soil structure and river systems, have substantially changed due to natural and anthropogenic factors. To adapt hydrological models to the changing characteristics of watersheds, one of the feasible strategies is to explicitly estimate the changed parameters. However, few approaches have been dedicated to these non-stationary conditions. In this study, we employ an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique with a constrained parameter evolution scheme to trace the parameter changes. This technique is coupled to a rainfall-runoff model, i.e., the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model. In addition to a stationary condition, we designed three typical non-stationary conditions, including sudden, gradual and rotational changes with respect to two behavioral parameters of the XAJ. Synthetic experiments demonstrated that the EnKF-based method can trace the three types of parameter changes in real time. This method shows robust performance even for the scenarios of high-level uncertainties within rainfall input, modeling and observations, and it holds an implication for detecting changes in watershed characteristics. Coupling this method with a rainfall-runoff model is useful to adapt the model to non-stationary conditions, thereby improving flood simulations and predictions.
 
通讯作者地址: Xie, XH (通讯作者)
Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
地址:
[ 1 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China