陈明星等：Population distribution and urbanization on both sides of the Hu Huanyong Line: Answering the Premier's question

Population distribution and urbanization on both sides of the Hu Huanyong Line: Answering the Premier's question

作者:Chen, MX (Chen Mingxing)[ 1 ] ; Gong, YH (Gong Yinghua)[ 1,4 ] ; Li, Y (Li Yang)[ 3 ] ; Lu, DD (Lu Dadao)[ 1 ] ; Zhang, H (Zhang Hua)[ 2 ]

JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES

卷: 26  期: 11  页: 1593-1610

DOI: 10.1007/s11442-016-1346-4

出版年: NOV 2016

摘要

In late November 2014, while attending a science exhibition on human settlement at the National Museum, Premier Li Keqiang posed a question to society and scientists regarding the Hu Huanyong Line, which the media subsequently dubbed "the Premier's question". This increased awareness and interest in the Hu Huanyong Line and launched a lively debate which provoked a variety of views. In an attempt to address the Premier's question, this paper firstly reviews the origins of the Hu Huanyong Line, named after the famous population geographer who proposed it in 1935 as part of a wider debate on domestic overpopulation. Using demographic data from China's first, fifth and sixth censuses, as well as the ArcGIS platform, we analyze the size, proportion and density of populations in the areas southeast and northwest of the Hu Huanyong Line, showing that urbanization and migration have not changed the pattern of population distribution observed by Hu Huanyong. Based on this, we suggest that the pattern of a dense population southeast of the line and sparse population northwest of the line will not fundamentally change for a relatively long time, nor will the situation of urban agglomerations being mainly found in the southeastern region. We also argue that climate and other physical geographic conditions determine that the Hu Huanyong Line shall remain in place. We believe that the question posed by Premier Li Keqiang is solvable, and that with positive policy guidance and rational spatial organization, the northwestern region can achieve more modernization and better quality urbanization, while the same is true for the central region.

通讯作者地址: Zhang, H (通讯作者)

Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.

地址:

[ 1 ] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Sustainable Reg Dev & Modeling, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[ 2 ] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[ 3 ] Chinese Acad Sci, China Ctr Modernizat Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China

[ 4 ] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China